Before the college football season, the big, bad Texas Longhorns were favored to win the national championship and promising sophomore quarterback Arch Manning was the summer front runner to hoist the Heisman Trophy.
Whoops.
After sputtering early, Manning has played two of his best collegiate games the last two Saturdays and Texas is suddenly very much alive to make the College Football Playoff. There’s a realistic chance the Horns finish 9-3 and the committee gets swooned by their Top-15 wins, humongous brand and quarterback with the million-dollar last name.
Stranger things have happened.
🎙 Vegas Voices
“Texas has an opportunity to notch one or two massive wins,” FOX Sports betting expert Chris Fallica told me. “If the committee is serious about rewarding strength of schedule and quality wins, the Longhorns will have one of the best résumés in the country if they can beat Georgia or Texas A&M — or both.
“I bet them at +180 [to make CFP] and suggest you do the same.”
As for those potential wins, a couple sportsbooks are dealing Texas as a 5.5-point underdog at Georgia next Saturday and Wynn Resorts bookmaker Motoi Pearson says Texas and Texas A&M will be a coin flip in Austin to end the regular season.
My buddy Trey Elling hosts a radio show on ESPN 102.7 Austin and he’s the realist Horns fan on the planet. His glass stays centered, never half-full or half-empty.
“Texas matches up well with Georgia,” Elling said. “They’re not losing to Arkansas. And A&M typically doesn’t play well in Austin. A 9-3 record for Texas is the most likely outcome and it sure seems like a three-loss team will make the playoff.”
☘️ Irish Bounceback?
Notre Dame played a C+ game at Boston College last Saturday and never had a chance to cover the 30.5-point spread on the road. The Irish host Navy this weekend and respected money has driven the line from -24.5 to as high as -27.
That sure seems like a lot of points to give a 7-1 Navy team but from a sheer talent and power ratings perspective, this game has all the makings of a blowout.
And the next Instagram commenter to like the Irish might be the first.
📊 Sharp Report
Notre Dame -24.5 —> -27
Kansas +6 —> +4.5
Rutgers PK —> -2.5
California +20.5 —> +18
Colorado-WVU U56.5 —> 53
JMU-Marshall U57.5 —> 54
Steelers +3.5 —> +2.5
BAL-MIN O46.5 —> 49
🥃 Fade the Bartender
The Bartender went 1-2 last Sunday. He whiffed on the Lions and Patriots as favorites and drilled a rare dog play on the Steelers. Get his bets this Saturday on X.
🐔 Chicken Picks
Here are the plays this weekend. Stupid push on Texas (-3) last week.
Notre Dame -26.5
Iowa +6.5
Texas Tech -10
Boston College +10.5
Vikings +4.5
Buccaneers -2.5
L/W: 4-1-1, +2.9 units
YTD: 25-30-4, -7.8 units
Follow Sam!
Bet Sweats | Bear Bets
Chicken Dinner | FOX Sports
“A 9-3 record for Texas is the most likely outcome and it sure seems like a three-loss team will make the playoff.” — Trey Elling