🤔 Rebel Roulette
The Ole Miss quarterback situation has turned into a spin of the wheel. Austin Simmons left last Saturday’s game with an ankle injury, but by midweek the Clarion Ledger reported he was probable against Arkansas.
Then came fresh whispers Thursday afternoon that Simmons wasn’t progressing the way the Rebels had hoped. By 4 pm ET, wise guys swooped in on Arkansas +7.5 and +7, and Circa Sports in Las Vegas eventually dipped as low as +6.
Naturally, someone fired back Ole Miss -6.
Simmons wasn’t listed at all on the late Thursday injury report but as SportsTalk Mississippi’s Michael Borkey said “it doesn’t mean the injury magically went away.”
From a power ratings standpoint, it’s never easy to properly price a backup QB in Lane Kiffin’s high-octane offense — especially Trinidad Chambliss, who threw for 2,900 yards, rushed for 1,000 more and totaled 51 touchdowns last year at Ferris State. Imagine what he could do with all that Ole Miss skill and speed.
And what a name.
🎙 Vegas Voices
“With that name, I might upgrade Ole Miss,” Wynn Resorts bookmaker Motoi Pearson cracked. “I’m not sure Simmons is worth much. I sort of assume all these quarterbacks under Lane [Kiffin] are going to be pretty decent.
“Guess we’ll see who goes on Saturday.”
Elsewhere, respected bettor and “Cover the Weekend” host Tommy Lorenzo is scorching hot. Lorenzo is currently tied for second in the Westgate College SuperContest with an 11-3 record through the first two weeks.
Lorenzo treats winning streaks differently these days.
“In my early days in the early 90s, I would just let ‘er rip because I was playing with house money,” he admitted. “But the sting of giving it all back after a hot start was not a good feeling. Now I want to stack profitable months and ultimately a profitable season. The unit size of my bets stays the same during hot streaks and I will scale it back a bit during a cold spell.”
Lorenzo likes Central Michigan +28 Saturday.
“Michigan is good, but still a work in progress on both sides of the ball,” he handicapped. “CMU’s D can stop the run, so it’ll be up to Michigan QB Bryce Underwood to throw. And CMU’s three-QB system is enough of a wrinkle with misdirection and RPOs to keep the aggressive Michigan D honest. Even a 36-10 final gets us home.”
Anything else?
“Go Georgia Bulldogs,” Golden Nugget executive director of race and sports Tony Miller told me from his Fremont Street office. “We opened -6.5, moved down to -4 and are still getting Tennessee money. They won’t stop.”
📊 Sharp Report
Tennessee +6.5 —> +4
Arkansas +9.5 —> +6.5
Miami FL -15 —> -17.5
Arizona State -14 —> -18
Temple +24.5 —> +21.5
Florida-LSU U51.5 —> 47
Oregon-Northwestern U51.5 —> 48.5
Texans -1.5 —> -2.5
Lions -4.5 —> -6
🔭 FCS Watch
#VegasRick smashed the Georgia Tech “Over” to 61.5 and the Yellow Jackets beat Gardner Webb 59-12. These lines move. Be on the lookout for a North Carolina-Richmond “Over” move Saturday morning.
🍺 Braggadocious Barkeep
The Bartender, our favorite NFL fade, cashed his first two plays of the season. What’s next? Find out Saturday on the Chicken Dinner X account.
🥵 Survive and Advance
Never a doubt on the Denver Broncos in NFL Survivor. Smh. The crew is eyeing the Buffalo Bills or Pittsburgh Steelers for Week 2. I did send a “Mac Jones no matter what” message to the group thread but odds are good we won’t get there.
🐔 Chicken Winners
Still can’t believe Kansas +6.5 didn’t cover. Here’s my six piece for this weekend.
Miami FL -17.5
Minnesota -2.5
Oregon-Northwestern Under 49
Georgia ML/Notre Dame ML +120
Dolphins -1.5
Raiders +3.5
L/W: 1-3-1, -2.3 units
YTD: 2-5-1, -3.6 units
Good luck all.
Follow Sam!
Bet Sweats | Bear Bets
Chicken Dinner | FOX Sports
“With that name, I might upgrade Ole Miss. I’m not sure Simmons is worth much. I sort of assume all these quarterbacks under Lane [Kiffin] are going to be pretty decent.”
- Motoi Pearson, Wynn Resorts