The Florida Gators are not a good football team.
With six losses in nine games, a fired head coach and a highly unlikely path to a postseason bowl game, it’s fair to wonder if Florida will throw in the towel. Whispers about multiple Gator players opting out surfaced Sunday and respected money drove Ole Miss from -13.5 to -17 at several Las Vegas shops.
Somebody was betting like they knew something.
Then — the other shoe dropped.
Betting groups started firing back on Florida +17 and +16, driving the line to +14 by early Thursday afternoon. Another wave of action around 6:30 pm ET shoved the number to Florida +12.5 at offshore powerhouse CRIS. The market now sits between 13 and 14 as bettors duke it out over the Gators being dead or alive.
Choose your fighter wisely.
🎙 Vegas Voices
“Here’s the deal,” one source texted me. “The term white flag has been thrown around. When teams lose their juice in this era, guys start opting out. If some of the guys that play give the effort they gave against Kentucky, they’re getting drilled.”
I personally know people with Ole Miss -13 and others with Florida +17. Both sides are happy with their positions. Can’t wait to see Saturday’s final score in Oxford.
Elsewhere, the Notre Dame tax is getting ridiculous. And that’s coming from someone that bet -26.5 last week against Navy. Tip Sheet readers know I respect this year’s Irish squad but laying 12.5 at Pitt seems a little high, no? Maybe people are putting too much stock into Pat Narduzzi’s comments about not caring if Pitt gives up 100.
“If there was ever a time to not trust Narduzzi’s word,” Wynn Resorts bookmaker Motoi Pearson said. “It’s probably now.”
Anything else?
“I’m on South Florida -10,” wise guy and “Cover the Weekend” host Tommy Lorenzo told me. “Their run defense will serve them well against Navy's only strength: the run game. It’s going to be tough for Navy to move the ball as their passing numbers continue to regress against better teams. I make South Florida 16 points better.”
🤕 Concussed Cavalier
Virginia quarterback Chandler Morris took a nasty hit to the head last weekend against Wake Forest and he’s listed as questionable for Saturday’s game at Duke. I’m sure that surprised the people who bet Virginia the other day like they knew Morris was healthy.
“Nobody was breathing on him at practice,” one reporter told me. “If the game was today, he wouldn’t have played. It’ll come down to the wire.”
📊 Sharp Report
Ole Miss -13.5 —> -17
Florida +17 —> +13
Michigan -9.5 —> -11.5
TCU +6 —> +3.5
Texas-Georgia O47 —> 49.5
Minnesota Oregon U46 —> 44
Giants +8.5 —> +7
TB-BUF U50.5 —> 47
🥃 Fade the Bartender
The Bartender silenced his haters last weekend with a 2-0 Sunday. Confidence is dangerously high. Find out what he’s pouring up this Saturday on X.
🐔 Chicken Picks
Here are the plays this weekend.
Ole Miss -13.5
Texas +6.5
Pittsburgh +12.5
Mississippi State +7
Vikings -2.5 -115
Giants +7
L/W: 3-3, -0.3 units
YTD: 28-33-4, -8.1 units
Follow Sam!
Bet Sweats | Bear Bets
Chicken Dinner | FOX Sports
“If there was ever a time to not trust Narduzzi’s word, it’s probably now.”
— Wynn Resorts bookmaker Motoi Pearson