Diego Pavia and the Vanderbilt Commodores stunned No. 1 Alabama in Nashville last year, cashing outright as a 23-point underdog. Now it’s payback time in Tuscaloosa and the Crimson Tide are only laying 10.5 at home.
Feels cheap, doesn’t it?
🎙 Vegas Voices
“The public is infatuated with Vandy,” one former bookmaker told me. “That team is power rated so high these days and this is too sharp of a line. They’re not giving you what you deserve on the Vandy side. It’s clear as day.”
Wynn Resorts bookmaker Motoi Pearson shipped an A+ quote in last week’s newsletter about Alabama rounding into form and taking the next step.
“It’s stupid to say keep your eyes on Alabama, but keep your eyes on Alabama.”
Kudos to anyone who jumped on Ty Simpson at 20-1 to win the Heisman. He’s now as low as 9-1 with 11 touchdowns, no interceptions and more opportunities this Saturday.
☀️ Sunshine Showdown
It feels like the late ‘80s with Miami and Florida State back on the national stage with recruiting juice on the line.
The Hurricanes were 6-point favorites at Circa Sports last Sunday afternoon, then wise guys started hitting the Seminoles. Some books are down to Miami -4.
“I like the Seminoles personally,” Pearson admitted. “But I feel like I’m gonna lose a ton of money betting against Miami this year. I’m still high on the ‘Noles and Virginia is a not a bad loss. That Cavs team could challenge for the ACC crown.”
Golden Nugget head honcho Tony Miller expects plenty of touchdowns.
“The Seminole defense got exposed against Virginia,” he said. “I think Carson Beck goes off here. If both offenses get going, it’ll fly Over the total.”
📊 Sharp Report
Cincinnati +2 —> -1.5
Florida +7 —> +5
BYU -18.5 —> -20.5
Nebraska -9 —> -11.5
Houston-Texas Tech O49 —> 52
Saints PK —> -2
Broncos +5 —> +3.5
KC-JAX O44.5 —> 46
🔭 FCS Watch
Here we go. #VegasRick is lining up another FCS total for Saturday morning. All eyes on the Northern Arizona “Over” before the number (56.5) moves.
🥃 Fade the Bartender
Our favorite barkeep went 0-3 last weekend and he come out of the woodwork to chase his losses with the Packers -6.5 on Sunday night. Naturally, the game ended in a tie.
He’s out searching for more locks to share Saturday.
👥 Around the Table
We talked hockey on this week’s live show with handicapper Alex Smith and bookmaker Jeff Davis. It was great to hear them go back and forth on the Tampa Bay Lightning.
Here are some top comments:
Jaric Rubel: “Ducks Over 84.5 points and playoffs +275.”
Dan: “Vegas over Leafs in the Stanley Cup. If Marner wins the Conn Smythe, Toronto might burn to the ground.”
John Massey: “Rangers were 30th in 5-on-5 high-danger chances last season. It was Keystone Cops in front of Igor and Jonathan Quick.”
🐔 Chicken Picks
Here are the plays for this weekend.
Alabama -10.5
Oklahoma O53.5
Notre Dame -20.5
Ohio State -23.5
Commanders +3
Chiefs -3 -118
L/W: 4-3, +1.0 units
YTD: 10-16-1, -7.3 units
Follow Sam!
Bet Sweats | Bear Bets
Chicken Dinner | FOX Sports
“It’s stupid to say keep your eyes on Alabama, but keep your eyes on Alabama.”
- Wynn Resorts bookmaker Motoi Pearson