When I worked at VSIN in Las Vegas, legendary Las Vegas bookmaker Chris Andrews dropped a memorable quote during one of our many chats. I brought up a Florida Atlantic squad that needed a late-season victory to qualify for a bowl game.
“If they must win,” Andrews said, “they must not be that good.”
A few days later, FAU lost to Charlotte as a sizable home favorite, keeping Lane Kiffin and the Owls out of the postseason. Just like that.
The stakes are much higher for this year’s BYU Cougars (9-1), who head to Nippert Stadium this weekend to face Cincinnati. The College Football Playoff committee slotted BYU 11th in its recent rankings and they’ll obviously need to win out to reserve a spot in next month’s final bracket.
You can only imagine how popular the Cougars are at the window.
🎙 Vegas Voices
“We’re taking water on BYU,” one Vegas bookmaker told me. “Every ten bets we write, nine are on the favorite. We’ll be huge Cincinnati fans Saturday.”
So why sit BYU -2.5 and not move to -3?
“You know why,” he cracked.
Across the country, BetMGM, DraftKings and FanDuel are also reporting heavy Cougars handle as short road chalk. It’s currently the No. 2 most popular ticket at BetMGM and all three books are hovering around the 80% mark in ticket count.
Those fancy chandeliers don’t hang themselves.
Anything else?
“I’m only going to say this once,” Wynn Resorts bookmaker Motoi Pearson said. “I’m betting two teams to win the FCS title — Mercer and Montana State.”
Rock on, Mo.
🏈 Cream of the Crop
I asked Westgate SuperBook VP John Murray to rank his shop’s highest-rated NFL teams. In an ecosystem where the 5-5 Kansas City Chiefs are still 5/1 to reach the Super Bowl, there’s clearly disbelief in teams at the top of the AFC standings.
Los Angeles Rams
Philadelphia Eagles
Buffalo Bills
Kansas City Chiefs
Detroit Lions
Baltimore Ravens
Seattle Seahawks
Indianapolis Colts
Green Bay Packers
New England Patriots
Murray said No. 1 and No. 7 are separated by 1.5 points.
“This is as wide-open of a field as we’ve seen in a long time,” he added.
📊 Sharp Report
Nebraska +10 —> +8
UTSA +3.5 —> +2.5
Michigan -12 —> -14
Arkansas +10 —> +8.5
Steelers +3 —> +2.5
NE-CIN O49.5 —> 51.5
CAR-SF O47 —> 49.5
🥃 Fade the Bartender
The Bartender lost his NFL double dip on Chiefs -3.5 at Denver. Let’s see how he rebounds. Find out what he’s pouring up this Saturday on X.
🐔 Chicken Picks
Here are the plays this weekend. Best of luck.
Oregon -10
James Madison -13.5
Cincinnati +2.5
North Carolina +7
Air Force +4
Steelers +2.5
DAL-PHI U47.5
L/W: 0-5-1, -5.5 units
YTD: 28-38-5, -13.6 units
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